For several years, Cape Town seemed to dominate headlines when it came to internal migration. Johannesburg professionals, families, and even corporates were increasingly opting for the perceived lifestyle benefits, governance advantages, and natural beauty of the Western Cape. It sparked one of the most widely discussed real estate trends in South Africa — the “semigration boom.” But the numbers from 2024 tell a more nuanced story.
Despite the continued growth in Cape Town’s commercial property sector, Johannesburg has quietly but confidently reasserted itself as a resilient centre for office investment. The sale of over R1 billion worth of office space in the City of Gold during 2024 signals a shift in sentiment. This volume of capital flowing into commercial assets — particularly offices — highlights renewed investor confidence in Joburg’s long-term prospects.
Cape Town’s Migration Trend Was Real — But It’s Normalising
The move to Cape Town was driven by a combination of factors: remote work, quality of life, load-shedding resilience, and concerns over municipal governance elsewhere. Cape Town offered not only lifestyle, but a functioning city model — with reliable service delivery, investment in infrastructure, and some of the country’s most attractive office and mixed-use precincts. For companies and individuals able to make the move, it made strategic sense.
However, the pace of migration was never going to continue at the same rate indefinitely. By late 2023, many of the “early movers” had already relocated. Office absorption slowed, and residential stock began to tighten in Cape Town’s most popular suburbs. Rental growth across the city — while positive for landlords — made affordability a challenge for new entrants.
At the same time, Johannesburg remained South Africa’s economic engine. With a broader corporate base, greater head office density, and the infrastructure to support large-scale commercial activity, Joburg’s fundamentals remained intact — even if sentiment lagged behind.
Why Joburg’s Office Sales Are Picking Up
The R1 billion in office sales recorded during 2024 is not a statistical anomaly. It reflects a growing view among investors and owner-occupiers that Johannesburg still holds value — particularly at a time when interest rates have stabilized and the market is beginning to find its footing again.
Many of the properties traded in the past year were well-located, tenanted buildings in Sandton, Rosebank, and Bryanston — areas that continue to attract business. Crucially, some buyers were owner-occupiers, indicating renewed appetite from businesses for owning premises rather than leasing, especially if pricing is competitive and long-term certainty is a priority.
Private capital, listed funds, and developers are also taking a long-term view. Where pricing in Cape Town has firmed up and new development opportunities are limited, Johannesburg offers more scale, more land, and — for now — greater pricing elasticity. Investors are positioning themselves accordingly.
Cape Town and Johannesburg Are No Longer in a Zero-Sum Game
It’s tempting to pit the two metros against each other, but the reality is more layered. Both cities are undergoing different phases of their market cycle. Cape Town has benefitted from strong internal migration, a limited supply of commercial land, and a track record of infrastructure resilience. Johannesburg, meanwhile, is entering a phase of value opportunity, with well-priced stock, a larger economic base, and improving tenant demand in selected nodes.
The office market in both cities has evolved since the pandemic. Hybrid work has changed the way space is used. Demand has consolidated into buildings that offer quality, flexibility, and energy resilience. This trend is visible in both metros, and tenants are more discerning than ever — choosing buildings based on what they offer in terms of location, fit-out, cost, and continuity of operations.
What to Watch in 2025
Heading into 2025, it’s likely that both cities will continue to attract investment, albeit for different reasons. Cape Town’s growth will be driven by scarcity, stable governance, and the sustained appeal of live-work-play precincts. Johannesburg’s resurgence will be driven by the affordability gap, its deeper corporate footprint, and greater volume of tradeable stock.
The question is not whether one city is better than the other, but how each can meet the changing needs of occupiers and investors. What the R1 billion in Johannesburg office sales tells us is that the commercial heart of Gauteng is still beating — and many believe now is the time to get in.
